Does copying Congress's stock trades beat the market?
How the test worked
FundsGo's Strategy Lab replays strategies day by day using only information that was public on each day:
- Entry: the next market open after a trade was disclosed, the earliest moment an outsider could act.
- Exit: after 20 trading days, or earlier if the same member disclosed selling.
- Portfolio: $100,000 split evenly across up to 10 positions, with 0.1% cost on every buy and sell.
- Data: U.S. House Periodic Transaction Reports for stocks, about 4,700 disclosed buys over two years; daily prices from public market data.
Results, October 28, 2024 to October 28, 2026
| Strategy | Total return | Per year | Worst drop | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY), buy and hold | +32.8% | +15.2% | — | — |
| Copy Congress buys + uptrend filter | +16.9% | +8.1% | −16.0% | 1.24 |
| Copy all Congress buys after disclosure | +5.2% | +2.6% | −21.4% | 1.09 |
| Same buys on the members' own trade dates* | +2.3% | +1.2% | −24.1% | 1.06 |
*Not possible for the public; included to show whether the disclosure delay is what hurts. In this period it wasn't: the members' own timing did no better than copying them late. Profit factor is total gains divided by total losses (above 1 means winners outweighed losers).
Why copying Congress usually disappoints
- The delay. Disclosures arrive up to 45 days late, so any information advantage may already be priced in.
- Ranges, not sizes. A $1,001 buy and a $50,000 buy look similar, so you can't weight positions the way the member did.
- Most trades are ordinary. Many reports are routine portfolio moves by spouses or advisers, not informed bets.
- Hard benchmark. A broad index fund is cheap, diversified and hard to beat over any period.
Does a "cluster" of Congress buys help?
FundsGo also tracks every live signal and checks it 5, 20 and 60 trading days later. Over two years of replayed data, signals that included "3 or more members of Congress bought this stock in 30 days" averaged −0.63% versus the S&P 500 over the following 20 trading days (218 signals). That is no evidence of an edge.
What this does and doesn't mean
These are historical results for one period and one set of rules; a different period could look different. They don't show that any member traded on inside information, and they don't show that following officials is useless for learning: seeing what people disclose, and testing it honestly, is exactly how to build judgment. FundsGo lets you rerun these tests with your own hold periods and costs.
Key takeaways
- Over Oct 2024 to Oct 2026, copying disclosed Congress buys returned +5.2% vs +32.8% for the S&P 500.
- Filtering for stocks in an uptrend helped (+16.9%) but still lagged the index.
- Always compare a strategy with simply holding the index over the same dates, after costs.
Sources
- FundsGo Strategy Lab and Signal track record, run October 28, 2026, on U.S. House Periodic Transaction Reports and public daily prices.
- STOCK Act (2012) disclosure rules: see How to track Congress's stock trades.
Frequently asked questions
Does copying Congress stock trades make money?
In FundsGo's two-year back-test (Oct 2024 to Oct 2026, costs included), copying every disclosed Congress stock buy returned +5.2%, while simply holding the S&P 500 returned +32.8%.
Why doesn't copying Congress beat the index?
Disclosures arrive up to 45 days late, amounts are reported as ranges, many trades are routine, and a broad index fund is a hard benchmark to beat.
Is there a better way to use Congress trade data?
In the same test, copying only buys of stocks already in an uptrend returned +16.9%: better than copying everything, but still behind the S&P 500.